The real options framework has been used to characterize the timing of irreversible investment in the presence of uncertainty. Despite a well developed theoretical literature, there are few empirical studies that use investment level data to examine the link between real options theory and investment. We examine 1,214 individual real estate developments in Vancouver, Canada using neighborhood level returns over a twenty year period to identify the extent to which uncertainty delays investment. The condominium developments in our sample cannot easily be redeployed to alternative uses, which allows us to isolate the call option, the value of delay, from the put option, which is based on the disinvestment potential of an asset. We find that increases in both idiosyncratic and systematic (market) risk lead developers to delay new real estate investments. Empirically, a one-standard deviation increase in the volatility of real estate returns reduces the hazard rate of investment by 13 percent, equivalent to a 9 percent decline in the real price level. Finally, we show that the value of the (call) option to delay a project is eroded by competition. Increases in the number of potential competitors negates the negative effect of idiosyncratic risk on the probability of development. This competition result provides support for the real options interpretation over alternatives such as risk aversion.
1010 Affordable Housing Amazon Amenitization Architecture Artificial Intelligence Asia Australia automation Autonomous Vehicles Borrowing Constraints Brexit California Canada Capital Business China Co-Working Environment coastal markets Colombia Commercial Brokerage Commercial Real Estate commissions Congestion consumer bias covid-19 CRE credit card market Credit Default Swaps Credit Insurance Credit Risk Transfers Culture Data Analytics Data Collection Technology Debt Market Demand Demographics Density Development Discrete Choice disruption Diversity drones e-Commerce Economic Corridors economic policy economics Equity Funds Equity Market Ethnic Factors Europe Fannie Mae financial asset management Foreclosures Foreign Policy France Freddie Mac general equilibrium Global Global Financial Crisis Globalization great depression Great Recession Hedonic Housing & Residential housing boom Housing Disease housing prices Housing Supply Identity Income Inequality India Inter-generational mobility Investing jobs labor market Lagging Regions land use regulation Language Macroeconomics malls Market Pricing megacities Microeconomics Migration Minimum Payments Mixed-Use Mobility moral hazard mortgage insurance mortgage market Mortgage Rates Mortgages Multi-family Nation Building Non-Traditional Mortgages Office Market office sector Placed Based Policies Political Risk Price Discovery Private Equity Business public health Public Schools real estate brokerage Real Estate Investment Real Estate Investment Trusts Recession Rental Retail Retirement reverse mortgages Risk Adjustment risk-shifting robotics single family housing Slums Sorting South America Spatial Regions spillover effect Sub-Prime Mortgages Sustainability Technology trade transportation United States Urban Urbanization Warehouse welfare