Mastering the metropolis through research and thought leadership.
Working Papers

Real Estate Opportunities and Risks in China

Working paper #582
Youguo Liang and M. Shayne Arcilla

Since China’s adoption of its open-door policy in 1978, real GDP has grown 9.7 percent per year. Last year, China overtook the United Kingdom as the fourth-largest economy in the world. China is experiencing slow population growth, at about 0.6 percent per year, but massive urbanization will expand the urban population by more than one-third over the next ten years, with annual increases projected to be more than 19 million. China’s middle class and affluent households now compose fewer than one-quarter of all urban households, but their share will rise substantially over the next decade. The downside risks to China’s future growth should not be overlooked. Severe environmental issues, the increasing income gap between rich and poor, and external political tensions could slow or derail economic growth. Investors also face risks arising from China’s deficient legal system, underdeveloped contract law, and cronyism and corruption in government. Foreign currency control, the government’s monopoly on land supply and frequent rule changes are additional hurdles that investors need to overcome.

Download full paper · 1MB PDF

In This Section
Explore Topics

1010 Affordable Housing Amazon Amenitization Architecture Artificial Intelligence Asia Australia automation Autonomous Vehicles Borrowing Constraints Brexit California Canada Capital Business China Co-Working Environment coastal markets Colombia Commercial Brokerage Commercial Real Estate commissions Congestion consumer bias covid-19 CRE credit card market Credit Default Swaps Credit Insurance Credit Risk Transfers Culture Data Analytics Data Collection Technology Debt Market Demand Demographics Density Development Discrete Choice disruption Diversity drones e-Commerce Economic Corridors economic policy economics Equity Funds Equity Market Ethnic Factors Europe Fannie Mae financial asset management Foreclosures Foreign Policy France Freddie Mac general equilibrium Global Global Financial Crisis Globalization great depression Great Recession Hedonic Housing & Residential housing boom Housing Disease housing prices Housing Supply Identity Income Inequality India Inter-generational mobility Investing jobs labor market Lagging Regions land use regulation Language Macroeconomics malls Market Pricing megacities Microeconomics Migration Minimum Payments Mixed-Use Mobility moral hazard mortgage insurance mortgage market Mortgage Rates Mortgages Multi-family Nation Building Non-Traditional Mortgages Office Market office sector Placed Based Policies Political Risk Price Discovery Private Equity Business public health Public Schools real estate brokerage Real Estate Investment Real Estate Investment Trusts Recession Rental Retail Retirement reverse mortgages Risk Adjustment risk-shifting robotics single family housing Slums Sorting South America Spatial Regions spillover effect Sub-Prime Mortgages Sustainability Technology trade transportation United States Urban Urbanization Warehouse welfare